Sometimes I just have to vent. Why is it that whenever something that goes wrong in the world it is some Democratic President’s fault? It looks like Syria has fallen. Their President, Bashar Assad has fled the country. Trump took the opportunity to, of course, blame President Obama for not doing enough go help Syria during his time in office. What was Obama suppose to do? Was he supposed to help Assad gas more Syrian people because that was what he was doing? Assad, with the help of Russia and Putin ruled Syria with an iron fist. The United States was in Syria to help the Kurds fight ISIS when Assad was gassing people rebelling against his regime. Obama asked Congress for support to stop the gassing of civilians that Congress denied. It was the Russian support that helped Assaad remain in power up until now. When Trump took office, we were still in Syria battling ISIS and Assad was still gassing his own people. He talked tough about doing something about Assad but of course did nothing. Trump in April of 2018 called Assad an “animal” and said that there would be a “big price to pay” for resorting to outlawing weapons of mass destruction. Tough talk but he never backed it up. Not too long after that he announced that he was going to withdraw our troops from Syria. In the end Trump turned his back on the Kurds and even though declaring ISIS defeated ISIS still is active to this day. In fact, ISIS interfering with the Syrian situation is a real concern.

Teddy Roosevelt said to “walk softly and carry a big stick”. When it comes to Trump what we have witnessed has been “talking loudly and caring a twig”. Talk is cheap and what I am afraid of is that our cheap talk has made us look weak. What we hear him say is just not in line with what has happened which convinces me that he really doesn’t have a clue what is going on or if he does, he doesn’t have a clue what to do about it. When it comes to Syria I have questions. One question is why did we pull out when we did because the job was not complete? The other question is why did we turn our backs on the very ally, the Kurds, that were helping us fight ISIS? Russia was backing the Assad regime. Is that why we didn’t make Assad pay that big price? Did Putin demand that we pull out of Syria? What about deserting the Kurds? Did Turkey demand that we stop helping the Kurds? If we are bowing to the demands of other countries that is not exactly carrying a “Big Stick”. I am not a foreign policy expect but I do know that being a leader on the world stage is not like some real-estate negotiation. When you are on the world stage it is not money that is at stake, it is world security and people’s lives.

I remember when the Shah of Iran had to flee the country and he was allowed to enter the United States to continue his cancer treatments. The people of Iran stormed the American embassy and took Americans hostages. Those hostages were held for 444 days. It is an interesting read on how it all developed and all of the events that led up to the Iranian revolution and I fear that what we may be witnessing is history repeating itself. What was established in Iran was a very strict Islamic government based on Shirai law. One that is very anti west, anti-Israeli and aligned with a few terrorist organizations. Could this happen in Syria? The Rebel operation was led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham also called the HTS. As reported by ABC News has its roots in al-Qaeda. It is considered a terrorist organization in the United States. HTS also has roots in ISIS also. HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani who was born in Saudi Arabia to Syrian parents from the Israeli controlled Golan Heights. Jolani, in an interview with PBS, stated that he fought for al-Qaeda in Iraq and ISIS in Syria. He went on to state that he was arrested by American forces and was held for more than five years in several detention facilities, including the infamous Abu Ghraib and Camp Bucca prisons. I doubt very seriously that we have a friend in Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

Trump has stated that it is not our fight. Of course, it isn’t but it may wind up being a huge problem for the Middle East and the world in general and that includes us. I find it hard to believe that he will be a friend of Israel. I could see another country emerging similar to Afghanistan and the Taliban. The fact that we imprisoned their leader would not be something that I would expect would make him a huge fan of the United States. It will be interesting how the new Trump administration handles it. Could there be an increase in terrorism? I don’t know but I think we better be prepared for it to increase. Is this going to be another threat against Israel? I am willing to bet it will be. What will be the Russian role in the region? I just can’t believe the Russia will just walk away from having its influence in the Middle East be weakened so. The story that is being played out in Syria is far from over and it could be just leading to more unrest in the Middle East.

What we are seeing in the Syria is not new to the Middle East. First, we had the Iranian Revolution. Then the we had the Iraq, Iran war. After that we had the truck bombing of American and French peace keeping forces in Lebanon. Then after that we had Desert Storm. Then 9/11. That was followed by the War in Afghanistan to fight terrorism. Again, we had another war in Iraq. We can’t forget Arab Spring. Then our own fight against the Islamic State.  We also have the Hamas terrorist attack on Isreal followed by the Israeli war against Hamas. Now we have the fall of the Syrian Government. Those are just the things off the top of my head. I am sure there are more that I missed. The Middle East is not a place for Amateur Statesmanship. It will not be like negotiating a real-estate deal. It is not like a contract negotiation. There are people dancing in the streets right now but history has taught us there is more to come. In the end we may need that big stick.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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